Searching the sky
The recent warm, dry weather is set to continue into spring according to the most sophisticated climatic models
With a warm winter behind us, forecasts predict a two-degree rise in average temperatures in March in Catalonia, according to the most trustworthy climatic models used by the US's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Rain was scarce during the winter months and everything points to the pattern continuing. Even with data from sophisticated climatic models nothing is certain, although NOAA correctly forecast the dry, warm weather of the past few months. In fact, it was one of the warmest and driest winters on record and if the experts are right about the trend continuing, then some tough decisions may have to be made.
As for the increased risk of forest fires, the chief analyst at GRAF (Grup d'Actuacions Forestals) of the Generalitat's fire service, Marc Castellnou, proposes a redeployment of firefighting units from the summer to the whole year, as well as a reorgan-isation of volunteer firefighters: “There has to be a change of mentality, a different mindset, to understand that fires not only happen in the summer,” he says.
For Xavier Castro, section head of the Generalitat's Servei de Prevenció d'Incendis Fores-tals, everything in the end depends on rainfall: “We have to accept that we have no control over it. In recent years, the work of prevention and the capacity to put fires out has improved a lot, but nature is nature and its potential for disruption is unstoppable.” For Castro, a decent amount of sustained rainfall would solve a lot of the problems. In fact, last July and August it rained specifically on farmland, which meant a lot of reservoir water was saved.
As for the water levels in reservoirs, a day of heavy rainfall on November 2 meant 70 million cubic metres of water found its way into reservoirs over the following two weeks. That was the equivalent to around 60 days consumption in the country's inland counties. As a result, water levels in reservoirs are now about the same as they were at the end of October.
Drought or water stress?
If we understand drought as an emergency situation caused by the sustained lack of rainfall, then it looks like Catalonia could already be in the middle of one. However, the state of the reservoirs is still relatively good and in the short to medium term no restrictions on water consumption are planned. What is currently causing more concern is what is known as hydric or water stress (the availability and quality of water resources) on vegetation. Everything suggests that this water stress is being caused more by the high temperatures than the lack of precipitation. Dryland farmers are already concerned, while the increasingly dry woodland areas means a greater risk of forest fires and therefore a rethink of the annual prevention campaign may be required.
Concerning the El Niño effect
Some studies out there suggest that the El Niño phenomenon, in which approximately every five years the waters of the Pacific Ocean overheat to the point that it affects weather patterns all over the planet, could easily lead to an extremely dry spring in Catalonia. According to the Catalan water agency, the ACA, a season with normal amounts of precipitation would likely raise water reserves by some 300 million cubic metres. However, in the current extraordinary circumstances the agency expects little over 100 million cubic metres of precipitation. Nevertheless, even this more modest amount of rainfall would guarantee water supplies for the whole of 2017.