Global warming in an unruly climate

There has always been a lot of chaotic weather in the Mediterranean. Although there are no hurricanes and tsunamis, we do have our own small-scale weather episodes: heavy rain, overflowing rivers, and storms. And the region has not been spared from weather related tragedies, like the 1962 Vallés floods that left 800 dead.

Experts agree that climate change is increasing these sudden and extreme shifts and predict that heavy rains (like the ones in Mallorca and Italy last autumn) will be more frequent. Carme Llasat, a lecturer at the University of Barcelona, directs the Meteorological Hazards Analysis Team (GAMA in Catalan), which has been analyzing episodes of heavy rain and the impact of natural disasters since 1981.

There were torrential rains at the turn of the century, with floods in Montserrat in 2000, Baix Llobregat in 2002 and the Empordà in 2005, but there haven’t been significant rains over the last few years. “The social perception is that it is raining more now, but climatic variability is always there, what happens is that we do not remember it,” says Llasat (expert in hydrometeorology). The intensification of the greenhouse effect will lead to episodes of heavy flooding and extreme drought. What is not so clear right now is how this will pan out in an area with such a varied climate. For the moment, according to Llasat, it cannot be proven that the last few decades have seen more torrential rain, since records of more than 200 mm falling in less than 24 hours are sporadic.

More can be said about air temperature, which has risen an average of 0.2 degrees a decade since 1950. According to data from the Catalan Met office, 2017 was the fifth warmest year since 1950 after 2015, 2006, 2014 and 2011.