Europe’s relief at the fall of populism
The populist wave that at the start of the year threatened to sweep away the EU has been welcomed by bureaucrats but huge challenges remain as well as a need for deep reform
Not a few bureaucrats in Brussels are heaving a sigh of relief these days. The narrow victory of Conservative Theresa May in the UK and the landslide triumph of Emmanuel Macron in France are the main reasons. The results of the British and French elections provided a much-needed breather for European institutions that had begun to suffocate under a wave of populism. Almost overnight, a political current that threatened the continuance of the continental club vanished, and a weakened UK government is now limping towards the Brexit negotiation table, while in France the threat of a victory for Marine Le Pen dissipated as her French National Front lost the north of the country.
The anti-establishment wave that at the start of the year threatened to sweep all before it, has since crashed on the rocks of pragmatism. The German foreign minister, Sigmar Gabriel, was firmly in the pessimist camp when he warned of the possible breakup of the EU if anti-European parties were to win in France and the Netherlands. Yet, six months later, a certain optimism has returned to Europe. The only pending issue now is the upcoming German election and the probable victory of Angela Merkel. That will surely be the final nail in the coffin of the Eurosceptics.
Unfortunately, things are a bit more complicated. May’s devastating miscalculation in calling an early election in the UK has now turned her into a zombie prime minister waiting for the Tory party grandees to put her out of her misery. May’s arrogance and strategic lack of forethought means that she has gone from enjoying a comfortable majority in the Westminster parliament to being forced to seek the narrowest of majorities, which is only possible thanks to the votes of an ultra-protestant Northern Irish party. This puts her in a very poor position for two main reasons, because not only does it call her mandate to negotiate the UK’s exit from Europe into question, but it simultaneously threatens the peace process in Northern Ireland. The precarious balance of power that finally brought the bombs and the killings to an end in the province, could now be overturned if the Catholics were to lose patience with the demands of the protestants in exchange for supporting the UK government.
Meanwhile, there is the huge electoral triumph of Macron and his shiny new political party, En Marche!. Macron’s victory was especially impressive given that the other political parties lost so much ground in June’s general election. The new president’s parliamentary majority is now so large that a debate has even sprung up about the absence of any real opposition, while the French electoral system, which mercilessly punishes the parties that do not get through to the second round of voting, has been called into question.
Light and shade
However, not everything is sweetness and light. The new president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, was initially welcomed by the EU. This former radical nationalist not only denounced the crimes of his country’s former leaders during the Balkan war, but made efforts to bring the former Yugoslavian state closer to Europe. Although, at the same time, Vucic has also been making overtures to Vladimir Putin’s greater Russia.
Meanwhile, Kosovo, which became independent from Serbia in 2008, is also knocking on the door of the EU, while its president Hashim Thaci, former guerrilla and prime minister, is dusting off the idea of bringing together the Albanian ethnic communities under a Greater Albania, as happened during the Second World War under the tutelage of Italian fascism. To the almost three million Albanians in Albania and the million and a half in Kosovo has to be added those residing in Macedonia and the 70,000 in Serbia, which makes a large enough number to tip the delicate balance of power in one of the most convulsive areas in recent European history.
Then there is Viktor Orban, the Hunagarian nationalist leader, who has become a stone in Europe’s shoe because of his disregard for the EU’s democratic principles. Nor does Brussels look kindly on the leader of Poland’s Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski. From a backseat, the conservative controls government policy with a mix of catholicism, Euro-scepticism and distrust of both Germany and Russia, Poland’s traditional neighbouring tormentors.
While, the bursting of Europe’s main populist movements is very good news for the European Union, the remaining challenges are huge and, without deep-seated reform, the continent’s old ghosts will surely return sooner or later.
