ISIS losing ground in Syria and Iraq

Islamic State has little chance of winning a conventional war. The organisation is aware of its limitations, especially since the international coalition and Russia began bombing its positions. Only yesterday, thirty jihadists were killed in an allied operation in the province of Nineveh in northern Iraq.

During 2015, Islamic State lost 14% of the territory it had conquered in Iraq and Syria since the conflict broke out in June 2014. The jihadists have lost more than 12,000 km², an area the size of the UK and home to more than seven million people. The defeat of Palmyra a few days ago is further evidence of the organisation's weakening on the ground.

Russia's entry into the conflict in the autumn of 2015 has allowed the troops of Bashar al-Assad to regain control of a conflict they were beginning to lose after five years of war. Meanwhile, the international coalition continues to fight to retake Mosul in Iraq, one of the country's most important cities.

Islamic State has also lost some important sources of funding since the outset of the conflict. The fall of the Tal Abyad border crossing on the border with Turkey, which constituted its main access point from Raqqa, has prevented the organisation from continuing to sell the same amount of oil on the black market.

Aware of these weaknesses, Islamic State is thought to be devising new strategies to spread terror in Europe. According to The Guardian newspaper, leaders of the self-proclaimed caliphate have met in the town of Taqba (Syria) to this end. According to the newspaper's sources, 200 militants - fighters who have gone to Syria and Iraq and then returned to Europe - are awaiting orders from ISIS leaders to attack European cities.