second round

Brexit

Scottish hopes of independence, which were buried in 2014 when 55% of the population voted to remain part of the UK, have been revived due to the UK’s exit from the European Union. Leaving Europe has not gone down well in Scotland, where the majority of voters chose to remain. In all, some 62% voted to remain in the EU, one of the highest figures in the whole of the UK. This is one of the reasons cited for calling for a new referendum on independence. In 2014, the UK was still part of the EU, but now the political and economic framework has clearly changed. In recent years, Scots have become more European than their English neighbours, and it is for this reason that the once often-heard phrase that it would take a generation to be able to hold a referendum again has now become obsolete for many people, who believe that the rules of the game have changed with Brexit.

Sturgeon

Some have called Nicola Sturgeon “Scotland’s Iron Lady”. The SNP party leader has been able to take advantage of the chaos caused by the recent exit of the UK from the EU to put forward a clear and direct message about Scotland’s right to remain part of the European bloc. Sturgeon has also managed to strengthen her hand by brushing aside the rival Alba Party presented just six weeks before the election by former SNP leader, former First Minister and Sturgeon’s mentor, Alex Salmond. In fact, in the May election Sturgeon’s party achieved its best result in its history. Meanwhile, Salmond’s new party managed to attract just 2% of the vote and did not get even one seat in the Scottish Parliament. This has put Sturgeon, who won 60% of the vote in her constituency, in a strong position, leading her to promise a new independence referendum as long as there is majority support for it and once the coronavirus situation is under control.

Johnson

The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has made it very clear from the beginning that he and his Conservative government oppose a new referendum. However, the good results achieved by Sturgeon’s party puts pressure on the British premier to respond, and if he does nothing, he risks letting the Scottish First Minister gain the upper hand. One of Johnson’s strategies – unlike that of his predecessor, David Cameron, who was the prime minister who agreed to the 2014 independence referendum – is for London to play a greater role in Scotland. Some powers (education, health, transport) were devolved in 1998, but Johnson has stated on several occasions that he thinks the concession of powers was a mistake and that Scottish self-government has been a “disaster”. This more centrist attitude from London, which also comes with a certain air of superiority, is what has changed the minds of many voters who opted to remain part of the UK in 2014. The arrival to power of the most conservative wing of the Tories, led by Johnson, has created a sense of rejection in Scotland. At the same time, so as to be seen as taking the initiative, Johnson was quick to invite Nicola Sturgeon, along with her counterparts in Wales and Northern Ireland, to a meeting that he has called ’Team UK’ with the aim of establishing ties of understanding with the UKs ’devolved home nations’.

‘Better together’

This is the slogan of the campaign launched by supporters of unionism a few months prior to the 2014 referendum. The aim of the campaign was to argue that England and Scotland are part of a greater whole, and several well-known personalities joined in. After a shaky start – in which the messaging strayed into the territory of fearmongering – the campaign became more positive and focused on highlighting the advantages of the UK staying together. It is also true that the two nations have not had any great confrontations in modern history, and they have even had more collaborative relations, thanks to the Act of Union of 1707, a treaty that was agreed voluntarily by the two countries.

Another important aspect is the British monarchy and the Queen’s relationship with Scotland. In fact, according to a number of media reports, Queen Elizabeth II has made statements in which she has expressed a willingness to be the monarch of a hypothetical independent Scotland.

Labour’s decline

For decades, Scotland was eminently Labour in its political leanings. The force of the movement that emerged from the workers’ struggle for better conditions and the strength of the trade unions was reflected in electoral support that guaranteed Labour comfortable majorities. Margaret Thatcher’s industrial policies also continued to inflate Labour’s ballot box in Scotland. Although decades have now passed, the economic policies pursued by the controversial Conservative leader have not been forgotten in Scotland. The withdrawal of subsidies from strategic sectors, promotion of relocation, and diminishing the power of the unions led many industries to close down. Glasgow, a city that lived off industry, is still suffering the consequences today, with neighbourhoods where poverty is endemic and unemployment levels are much higher than in the rest of the country.

The idea that London was losing legitimacy in Scotland began to gain ground in the 1980s, although Tony Blair’s New Labour Party hoped that a decentralised Holyrood parliament would help ease calls for independence.

The SNP’s policies

Decades later, the reality is that the SNP has managed to sweep Labour aside and do so with a message of independence that has attracted the voters who were most likely to vote for them. The SNP won an absolute majority in 2011, and in this latest election Sturgeon came within only one seat of doing the same. Much of the party’s success lies in its implementation of public policies. For example, when a baby is born in Scotland, the government sends a baby gift basket, a policy that emulates what is done in Finland. Self-government has also led to the construction of social housing, free universities, and more public health facilities. The Scottish National Party, founded in 1934, has gained a lot of ground to become the dominant party in Scotland.

New referendum

A new independence referendum is far from a priority for British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. However, as Sturgeon is completely opposed to the unilateral route, Edinburgh will have to come to some sort of agreement with London to be able to move ahead. The First Minister wants and needs approval for a referendum from London, which sets up a new political duel between the two leaders, from which one of them could emerge severely damaged.

In 2014, Scottish independence suffered a very painful defeat. More than half of Scottish voters chose to stay in the UK ahead of only 45% who voted for independence. Now, however, the result would be much more uncertain.