What’s first for the future government?

The Feb­ru­ary 14 elec­tion was a clear vic­tory for the sup­port­ers of Cata­lan in­de­pen­dence (pro-in­de­pen­dence par­ties to­gether won 51.14% of the vote in­clud­ing the votes for par­ties that failed to win seats in par­lia­ment), al­though the low turnout also raised con­cerns about a gen­eral un­ease among the vot­ing pub­lic. The re­sult now forces the po­lit­i­cal par­ties to re­fine their strate­gies and find al­lies to form a new gov­ern­ment.

The po­lit­i­cal par­ties quickly jumped into the fray and began try­ing to shape the fu­ture ex­ec­u­tive. Con­ver­sa­tions have con­tin­ued since, but it is still im­pos­si­ble to pre­dict the final out­come. In the com­ing weeks, it will be­come clearer whether agree­ment to swear in a new pres­i­dent is pos­si­ble, or whether a new elec­tion will take place. We asked pro­fes­sion­als and fig­ures in Cata­lan civil so­ci­ety what they think the pri­or­i­ties of the fu­ture ex­ec­u­tive should be. The opin­ions on the fol­low­ing pages are from peo­ple in a wide range of fields, from cul­ture and health to mi­gra­tion and the media.

The big ques­tions are which gov­ern­ment can best ad­dress the con­cerns of civil so­ci­ety? Which can­di­date is best placed to get the 68 votes re­quired to be sworn in as pres­i­dent? The in­de­pen­dence bloc achieved more than ever be­fore, with ERC gain­ing 33 seats, Junts 32, and CUP 9. Be­tween them they have a ma­jor­ity of 74 seats, but they still need to come to an un­der­stand­ing if they want to form any type of pro-in­de­pen­dence gov­ern­ment.

In such a sce­nario, ERC’s main can­di­date, Pere Aragonès, will most likely be­come Cat­alo­nia’s next pres­i­dent. Yet, the Re­pub­li­cans also in­sist on a broad front that in­cludes the left­wing En Comú Podem, some­thing that does not sit well with cen­tre-right Junts. Some in CUP, ERC and En Comú Podem dream of see­ing a pact of these three left­wing forces, but it is the num­bers that count. For such a thing to hap­pen, it would need the sup­port of Junts or the PSC Cata­lan So­cial­ists, who are against in­de­pen­dence. What’s more, par­lia­men­tary math­e­mat­ics means that one of these par­ties ab­stain­ing in the vote for pres­i­dent will not be enough for it to hap­pen should the other groups vote against.

That means all eyes are on the CUP party, which once again finds it­self in the po­si­tion of king­maker. The far-left pro-in­de­pen­dence party has in­creased its num­ber of seats from four to nine, but it waits to be seen what con­di­tions it will de­mand for its votes in the cham­ber to be used to form an­other pro-in­de­pen­dence coali­tion gov­ern­ment. The process of reach­ing agree­ment will not be easy or smooth.

Mean­while, PSC, the elec­tion’s over­all win­ner, says it will pur­sue the mir­a­cle of Sal­vador Illa claim­ing the pres­i­dency, al­though the party’s op­po­si­tion to in­de­pen­dence makes the like­li­hood of it at­tract­ing enough sup­port in the cham­ber al­most im­pos­si­ble. For the mo­ment, the most likely sce­nario is that ERC and Junts can per­suade CUP to fa­cil­i­tate the swear­ing in of a new pro-in­de­pen­dence pres­i­dent.

If no agree­ment is reached be­fore May 26, the par­lia­ment will be dis­solved and Cat­alo­nia will re­turn to the polls. What­ever hap­pens, the Feb­ru­ary 14 elec­tion will be re­mem­bered for tak­ing place dur­ing a pan­demic, the in­de­pen­dence bloc at­tract­ing record sup­port, PSC’s re­cov­ery, the emer­gence of far-right party Vox, and the col­lapse of Cs, the win­ner in 2017.

fea­ture 14F Elec­tions