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The cities of the future

By 2030, it is estimated that some 60% of the world’s population will live in large urban conurbations, making sustainability with the help of the latest technology one of the main challenges these areas face

The ‘La Ville du Quart d’Heure’ pro­ject is part of the ini­tia­tive by Paris mayor Anne Hi­dalgo to im­prove the lives of city res­i­dents. The prin­ci­ple is that in less than 15 min­utes a cit­i­zen should be able to ac­cess es­sen­tial needs, from ed­u­ca­tion and health to leisure and shop­ping. The idea is based on such things as the use of bi­cy­cles in­stead of pol­lut­ing ve­hi­cles, the trans­for­ma­tion of pub­lic spaces to give them mul­ti­ple uses, or elim­i­nat­ing park­ing spaces to cre­ate green spaces or bi­cy­cle park­ing lots. Mean­while, in April, Barcelona mayor Ada Colau pre­sented a pack­age of mo­bil­ity mea­sures that in­cludes elim­i­nat­ing cars from over 21 kilo­me­tres of city roads in favour of bi­cy­cles, with an extra 30,000 square me­tres for pedes­tri­ans. To achieve this, the plan fore­sees such ac­tions as clos­ing the side lanes of Gran Via and Avin­guda Di­ag­o­nal to traf­fic, and widen­ing the pave­ments of Via Lai­etana to 4.15 me­tres.

These are two ex­am­ples of ini­tia­tives in line with the UN’s Sus­tain­able De­vel­op­ment Goals in the urban en­vi­ron­ment, which take as a base­line the im­pos­si­bil­ity of achiev­ing sus­tain­able de­vel­op­ment with­out rad­i­cally trans­form­ing the way we man­age cities. Since 2007, more than half of the world’s pop­u­la­tion has been liv­ing in cities and that num­ber is ex­pected to rise to 60% by 2030. Cities and met­ro­pol­i­tan areas are nerve cen­tres of eco­nomic growth and con­tribute some 60% of world GDP, but they also ac­count for about 70% of global car­bon emis­sions and more than 60% of re­source use.

How­ever, rapid ur­ban­i­sa­tion is re­sult­ing in an in­creas­ing num­ber of peo­ple liv­ing in poor neigh­bour­hoods, in­fra­struc­ture and ser­vices (such as waste col­lec­tion and water and san­i­ta­tion sys­tems, roads and trans­porta­tion) that are in­ad­e­quate and over­bur­dened and that leads to more air pol­lu­tion and un­con­trolled urban growth.

The cities of the fu­ture will stand out for two rea­sons: their sus­tain­abil­ity and their tech­nol­ogy. For ex­am­ple, Songdo is a Ko­rean city with more than 100,000 in­hab­i­tants 65 kilo­me­tres from the cap­i­tal Seoul. Build­ing on Songdo began from scratch in 2002 with the as­pi­ra­tion of it be­com­ing the first smart and fully sus­tain­able city in the world. To achieve this, the city is com­mit­ted to the adop­tion of tech­nol­ogy and urban plan­ning that puts peo­ple at the cen­tre. There is a pre­dom­i­nance of mixed-use spaces, which bring to­gether res­i­den­tial areas, ser­vices, leisure, and jobs. The dis­tances be­tween peo­ple’s houses and the other spaces have been cal­cu­lated so that they can be cov­ered on foot, and if you need to take pub­lic trans­port, there are metro and bus stops within a 12-minute walk from home.

Con­ven­tional cars, vans and lor­ries have been re­placed by bi­cy­cles, while a pneu­matic tube sys­tem re­moves waste. In ad­di­tion, 40% of the city’s space is oc­cu­pied by green areas, and most res­i­den­tial build­ings are ex­pected to re­cy­cle at least 40% of the water they use and store en­ergy from re­new­able sources.

Mas­dar City is a green, self-suf­fi­cient city pro­ject de­signed by Nor­man Fos­ter that began con­struc­tion in 2008 next to Abu Dhabi Air­port. En­closed by a wall that pro­tects it from storms and winds, it has a roof that re­duces solar ra­di­a­tion and ab­sorbs sun­light to pro­duce elec­tric­ity. It is en­ergy self-suf­fi­cient, with a 10 megawatt pho­to­voltaic plant, and non-elec­tric ve­hi­cles are not al­lowed. De­signed for 50,000 in­hab­i­tants, it has just over 2,000 res­i­dents and so far only 10% of it has been built. The idea is to cre­ate a des­ti­na­tion at­trac­tive to tech­nol­ogy com­pa­nies in order to re­duce the emi­rate’s eco­nomic de­pen­dence on oil.

Yet, the cases of Songdo and Mas­dar are ex­cep­tions, as most of the cities of the fu­ture will emerge from the evo­lu­tion of ex­ist­ing ones. If there is one ex­am­ple of a me­trop­o­lis where it looked as if col­lapse was in­evitable but has man­aged to rem­edy the sit­u­a­tion, it is Sin­ga­pore. This Asian city-state, with 5.6 mil­lion in­hab­i­tants and a 7% growth fore­cast for 2030, has been ranked among the most sus­tain­able urban areas in the world, based on strate­gic plans com­mit­ted to op­ti­mis­ing mo­bil­ity and con­nec­tiv­ity. It has fast pub­lic trans­port and acts as a test bed to de­velop mo­bil­ity so­lu­tions that help re­duce its de­pen­dence on cars. In ad­di­tion, a net­work of sen­sors has been in­stalled to mea­sure pol­lu­tion and the vol­ume of traf­fic, to be able to react im­me­di­ately in case of need. Even a sys­tem of 3D maps has been cre­ated to mon­i­tor the en­ergy ef­fi­ciency of each build­ing, while hos­pi­tal doc­tors have helper ro­bots that are able to in­ter­act with hu­mans.

As for the green issue, su­pertrees have been cre­ated, ver­ti­cal gar­dens on steel struc­tures be­tween 25 and 50 me­tres high, which col­lect rain and are equipped with solar pan­els that gen­er­ate elec­tric­ity for night light­ing and to cool two green­houses that reg­u­late the city’s tem­per­a­ture. The 24-storey block of flats known as the Tree House is the largest ver­ti­cal gar­den in the world.

Smart cities

Sin­ga­pore ranks first in the IMD Smart City 2019 Index, which fo­cuses ex­clu­sively on how cit­i­zens per­ceive the scope and im­pact of ef­forts to make their cities smart, bal­anc­ing eco­nomic and tech­no­log­i­cal as­pects with human di­men­sions. It is fol­lowed by Zurich, Oslo, Geneva and Copen­hagen. The Dan­ish cap­i­tal as­pires to neu­tralise its car­bon foot­print by 2025, as the coun­try aims to achieve its in­de­pen­dence from fos­sil fuels by 2050. One of the most basic tools used to achieve these goals is the bi­cy­cle, which is used in 50% of travel.

In terms of data and its use to im­prove the city, Copen­hagen has launched the world’s first data mar­ket­place. This of­fers pub­lic and pri­vate urban in­for­ma­tion of any kind to com­pa­nies and cit­i­zens to de­velop smart so­lu­tions in any field. Among other ad­vances, city res­i­dents can check the avail­abil­ity of park­ing in real time when major events are tak­ing place. This is made pos­si­ble by the fact that the city has a data ex­change sys­tem be­tween mo­bile phones, GPS de­vices in­stalled on buses, and sen­sors lo­cated in places such as drains and bins. This sys­tem also makes it pos­si­ble to study the mo­bil­ity pat­terns of the in­hab­i­tants to ad­just the city’s plan­ning, in­crease safety and op­ti­mise the use of re­sources, as well as to reg­u­late traf­fic in real time and re­duce pol­lut­ing emis­sions.

fea­ture

New Urban Agenda

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted by the UN in 2015 includes goals that cities must have achieved within 10 years:

-Universal access to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and to improve poor neighbourhoods.

-Access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transportation systems and improve road safety.

-Reduction in the negative environmental impact of cities, paying special attention to air quality and waste management.

-Universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible green and public spaces.

-Support for economic, social and environmental links between urban, peri-urban and rural areas.

-Plans for resource efficiency and climate change mitigation.

The world’s most sustainable cities

JOAN POYANO

London is the most sustainable city in the world, according to the 2018 Sustainable Cities Index (ICS), produced by the consulting firm that studies natural and built assets, Arcadis.

This index analyses 100 cities in three main areas: People (quality of life and social opportunities), Planet (energy use, pollution and emissions), and Profit (economy and the business environment). European cities – London, Stockholm, Edinburgh, Vienna, Zurich, Munich, Oslo and Frankfurt – occupy the first eight places in the top ten, with Singapore and Hong Kong completing the top ten. Only three US cities – New York, San Francisco and Seattle – are in the index’s top 20. African and Asian cities remain in low positions due to their poor rates of economic sustainability.

London is one of the few high-performing cities in the Arcadis index with relatively similar scores between the three key areas of sustainability, although the British capital still faces huge challenges associated above all with accessibility and congestion.

The report highlights the impact of the rapid launch of digital technologies on the relationship between the city and its people. Flood or superstorm resilience data, digitised utility bills, personalised mobility applications for Mobility as a Service (MaaS) are all cited as examples of successful urban digital tools.

Megalopolises

JOAN POYANO

Tokyo is the largest megacity in the world, with 37.4 million inhabitants. In 2100, that distinction will pass to the capital of Nigeria, Lagos, with 88 million.

The concentration of the world’s population in large urban centres is a growing trend, because these cities are where much of the wealth is to be found. One of the consequences is that the number of megacities – cities with more than 10 million inhabitants – will multiply. In 2015, according to UN data, 54% of the population – about 3.69 billion people – lived in cities. By 2030, that will increase to 60%, accounting for more than 5 billion people.

Most of these megacities will be in emerging countries. In the medium term, that means Asian countries, such as China and India, and later African countries, such as Nigeria or Tanzania. Cities with more than 50 million people pose a huge challenge from the point of view of providing basic services and infrastructure. The construction of roads and underground rail systems can take decades to complete, and there is a danger of such infrastructure failing to keep pace with population growth.

Another challenge is climate change. Many of these megacities are located in coastal areas and depending on how environmental conditions evolve part of the territories in which they are located could end up underwater.

Growing vertically rather than horizontally

JOAN POYANO

Increasingly more architects, such as those grouped around the NGO Vertical City, propose the concept of vertical cities. The idea is based on building skyscrapers more than 1,000 metres high, which would be interconnected and have all the services of a classic city: homes, offices, shopping and leisure centres, sports centres, gardens, transportation systems, and so on.

A vertical city would save up to 75% of the energy used by a conventional city, and reduce polluting emissions by up to 90%. The environment and the residents of these cities would benefit in many different ways, according to the proponents of the idea. A conventional horizontal city of 100,000 inhabitants generally covers an area of some four kilometres in diameter. However, a vertical city with the same number of residents would occupy an area of one kilometre in diameter, freeing up space for agriculture and green areas.

What’s more, consumption of natural resources such as water would be much more efficient in a vertical construction. and renewable energies, such as solar, wind, or geothermal energy, could be harnessed in such a way that they would reduce energy dependence on non-renewable sources.

Meanwhile, transportation would be another element of improvement. It is estimated that in a large city, a typical resident spends an average of two to four hours a day commuting. In vertical cities, workers would reside near their work, which they could reach on foot or with via internal transportation system, such as a lift or electric monorail.

One of the downsides of vertical constructions - apart from the visual impact on the landscape - is that the high number of storeys would make evacuation of the population more complicated in the event of an emergency.

VICENTE GUALLART Architect

“Industries need to return to the heart of cities”

JOAN POYANO
What will the city of the future be like?
There are many models. They will be an evolution of what already exists, and Paris, Los Angeles and Medellin have very different starting points. My favourite is that of compact and discontinuous cities. The new paradigm revolves around the biocity or nature city.
The mayor of Paris talks about the 15-minute city, meaning any activity can be done on foot or by bicycle in 15 minutes.
The idea is to return to mixed uses, which disappeared in the two industrial revolutions, first with railways and then with automobiles, which was an explosion that filled the suburbs. It’s a matter of returning to the model that in Italy is called the ’slow city’, the traditional town of 50,000 inhabitants. This is the model for the 21st century, but on a more efficient scale. It’s like a supercomputer, which is not really a large computer but many small ones connected to a kernel.
Would it be a bit like the superblocks that Ada Colau is promoting in Barcelona?
In the early 2000s, we launched a plan to provide neighbourhoods with facilities such as libraries or markets. What’s missing, and in Paris there’s no talk of it, is bringing industry back to the heart of the cities. That’s key to making a more empowered city, for people to have more control over their lives. When you go to work at a multinational carmaker and go shopping for what multinationals make on the other side of the world, you’ve lost control. The key is to have the ability to decide where you live and how you work. To do this, it’s essential to invest in public housing, to lower prices.
Will new technologies encourage people to flee cities for towns?
In the 1990s, we imagined people living and working without having to be in the city, but it still has a great capacity for attraction. Now, with online universities and companies that have discovered the benefits of employees working from home and only going to the workplace once a week, we can see how on the one hand the city is key to ensuring employment and social attraction, but also that people can decide to go back to their origins. If you’re in a small town or village, there’s housing and coworking centres so you don’t have to work from home. There will be many opportunities to live in other ways. The Barcelona metropolitan area will be wider and will include medium-sized towns such as Vic and Manresa, and that will change the relationship between the city and the countryside.
Will Covid-19 accentuate this trend, or will it disappear when the pandemic passes?
In the city of the future, there will be almost no private vehicles and the metro will continue to be important, although there is a very important role for bicycles and last-mile buses in the functional hybridisation in neighbourhoods.
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